The New York Times, usually conservative when it comes to new technology has taken a very interesting perspective, saying that AT&T, the cable operators and new, not yet on the radar companies will be the long term winners when it comes to VoIP.
It also paints a rather dim picture about Vonage, saying the companies growth has slowed since AT&T entered the market. Part of the issue is more statistical. Vonage keeps getting new subscribers and their retail efforts with Radio Shack and the big box retailers will only keep their sales strong. AT&T will likely have the same relationships announced in the near future.
As far as the “new players,” I think you will see some companies step in that start buying up the companies with the best technology and smartest management team, then roll up the little guys.
–Update–
The story, which is based on a study of 1000 consumers in the US and UK by Mercer Management Group. That study, points to the early adopter or technology faulty tolerant group that is using the current offerings, but points to the fact that the more later adopters will want reliability (i.e. QoS) something Vonage, the market leader in the USA, has not yet addressed, while AT&T has.