Andy Says

For those of you who listen to the World Technology RoundUp which I co-host with Ken Rutkowski and Jason Romney on KenRadio.com, you know I often go out on a limb, aided by the famous “KenRadio Crystal Ball,” a device which is so tightly guarded by members of a secret sect of reformed Asian priests skilled in Jeet Kune Do and other martial arts. From time to time its location is so secret, even I am not informed where it is, and must summon it via a special toll free number that terminates in a different place at least three times a day.

So, given that I haven’t really been thinking about the “what may happen” in VoIP, like I do on the broadcast, I figured I’d make some SWAGs (for the unititiated that’s Stupid Wild Ass Guesses”)

1. Yahoo becomes your phone company. Think how hard will it be. They already have Yahoo Messenger. They have relationships with BT in the UK and SBC in the USA. They have marketing clout. Customers. Technology. Servers. They deliver Yahoo by broadband. In Japan Yahoo BB already is the phone company for many.

2. Microsoft becomes your phone company. SIP is already a part of the Operating System. Windows Messenger can be hacked to become front end to an IP Telephony service, something I was using two years ago. They used to offer h.323 access, but that was removed sometime back. Their “fellows” have been at IP Telephony conferences for years learning, studying and playing visiting professor. They bought Placeware which provides conferencing. They have users. Then have MSN Network which needs more broadband subscriber. How hard is it to offer a front end to a service that delivers telephony for a company their size.

3. AOL becomes your phone company. They have users. They want to be bigger in broadband. They have sold phone service before very succesfully, piggybacking on AT&T.

In each case. the brand is what the consumers will buy. The service will come from a third party, so think of them as VVoIP operators, just like MVNO’s in mobile telephony.

Next set of predictions:

1. There will be shakeout within the VoIP industry sooner than people realize. Many of the upstarts will get rolled up by the better funded companies, but who lack the skills to market or develop technology.

2. Look for the mobile carriers in the USA to become VoIP partners. Why? They have customers. They have retailers. Think of all those T-Mobile and Sprint stores selling more than cellular. Now think. One bill. Oh, one phone too. Can you say. Mo Money…..Oh one more reason. Wi-Fi. It gives roaming with a cell phone a whole new meaning.

3. WiFi with VoIP. Right now the authentication issue and getting onto closed network (i.e. T-Mobile, Wayport, etc.) versus your own hotspot in the house, office or campus, is a challenge. Reports are that some of the mobile carriers are asking the switch makers and handset manufacturers to “lock down” the ports that can allow VoIP at hotspots. Some PDA makers and brands are struggling with that for they know once handcuffs are put on the variety of uses a device can have, it erodes market share. Expect this to be a hotter topic once the new XDA III’s start getting greater use than today.

Well that’s six. Time will tell if I’m right.